Northern Iowa has already seen a solid start to winter this season, but that doesn’t mean everyone will wake up to snow on the ground Christmas morning.
While it may feel unusual after early snowfall, long-term weather records show it can happen — just not very often.
When at least 12 inches of snow falls by Christmas Eve, the odds usually favor a White Christmas, defined as one inch or more of snow on the ground Christmas morning. But history shows there are exceptions.
In Waterloo, which serves as a long-term climate benchmark for northern Iowa, records show there have been 35 years with a foot or more of snow by December 24. In only four of those years — about 11 percent — did the snow melt away before Christmas morning.
That means in nearly nine out of ten years with a snowy start, northern Iowa kept enough snow on the ground to qualify as a White Christmas. Warm temperatures, rain, or a mid-December thaw are typically needed to break that pattern.
This year is shaping up as one of those exceptions for some communities, reminding Iowans that early snow doesn’t always stick around through the holiday.
The bottom line: a snowy start usually sets the stage for a White Christmas in northern Iowa — but Mother Nature still has the final say.
